Can a City Attract New Settlers without the Right Infrastructure?

In Vladivostok, it is difficult to miss the city's two most obvious landmarks.  A pair of suspension bridges, towering above the low-rise cityscape, connects its centuries-old downtown area with southern suburbs across the Golden Horn Bay, and mostly wilderness Russky Island further south with the southern suburbs.  Already nicknamed "Russian San Francisco" for the zigzaging bays intersecting the city, Vladivostok only reminds more of the north American city with the bridges that look conspicuously like the Golden Gate. 

The two bridges are supposed to the headlining infrastructure development project undertaken by the federal government to make the city Russians gateway to economically dynamic Asia.  The symbolism is strong.  Initially built to link the city with the site on Russky Island hosting the 2012 APAC Summit, the bridges also represent the city's linkage to East Asia as a whole.  The linkage is supposed to bring more East Asian investors to the city, and then attract Russians from elsewhere to take advantage of new economic opportunities created by Asians.

Years later, there are mixed results.  On one hand, the city is attracting large amount of Chinese and Korean tourists.  Practically all notable shops on the city streets have billboards in Chinese and Korean beckoning tourists walking down its European-looking promenades.  A proliferation of expensive Chinese and Korean restaurants also make sure that tourists feel right at home.  The city has also become a regular host to many East Asia-focused economic and political forums, not least Russian government's regular dialog uses with Asian neighbors. 

Yet, the influx of Asian tourists have not seen a parallel in influx of Russians from elsewhere.  Indeed, the downward trend in local Russian population seems to continue unabated, from more than 9 million at the end of USSR, to 6 million in 2010 census, to what some estimate to be as little as 4 and a half million today.  The population decline is even evident in Vladivostok, the second largest city in the region, and it's largest seaport.  Empty spaces and buildings dot even the city center, and prominence of tourists reflect lack of locals. 

Of course, that is not to say Russians just do not come here anymore.  They do, but more often than not, they are transients, like their forefathers who willingly or were forced to settle in the sparsely populated region.  They come to earn money, and then live a more comfortable life in European Russia or elsewhere.  Putin's strategic pivot to Asia just means more Russians come here for better chance in preparing for future careers in one of the dynamic Asian economies not too far away from the city itself.

Such mentality makes the government's goal to make people stay on as long-term residents an unrealistic one.  The government, for its part, is trying its best to incentive the permanent move, handing out free land and tax incentives for new Settlers willing to start new businesses.  But transients are always on the lookout for better economic opportunities, and Vladivostok newfound connections to Asia just means more locals are willing to take the plunge south of the border to make money rather than stick around to develop the Russian Far East. 

As a local professor put so well in her pessimistic outlook of the government efforts, "to simply hand people land as incentive is just not enough; the infrastructure for creating thriving businesses is just not there at the moment."  The two bridges dominating Vladivostok skyline, to her, seem to represent not government ambitions to further improve the region's dismal infrastructure, but underscore just how lacking infrastructure really is in comparison to both East Asia and European Russia. 

Given the lack of propensity among transient Russians here to invest locally, the government sure hopes for more foreign investments.  But here it is also a chicken and an egg question.  If Russians here are so busy leaving for elsewhere, and Asian traders suffer in turn and also express desire to leave, then who will any investments made really be for?  Unless the government somehow put mass importation of Asian residents on the agenda, there is little hope of investments made having good returns.  Demographic reality just does not match government ambitions.