Comparative History of Human Development Can Provide New Clues for Explorations of Extraterrestrial Life
In his book Guns, Germs, and Steel, Prof. Jared Diamond argues that the different levels of development among modern human societies, in terms of institutions, wealth, and technology, are ultimately due to different environmental conditions faced by their historical predecessors. The availability of wild plants/animals for domestication and fertile climates/soil for food production enabled some societies, more than others, to adopt agriculture, explode in overall population, and create non-food producing specialists that enable innovations and complex society-building.
These complex agricultural societies, when placed in a geography that allow for quick diffusion of ideas and competition for regional supremacy, are best placed to intentionally and unintentionally adopt and further improve lethal weapons (such as guns, germs, and steel) that would quickly wreak havoc upon other societies that do not have the right environments and conditions for adopting innovations. For Diamond, the environmental and geographic factors are the main drivers for why farming societies displaced hunter-gathering ones, and Eurasian ones displaced non-Eurasian ones, across all time periods.
In an attempt to apply this historical trend to the contemporary world, Diamond points out that despite today's global connectivity based on international trade and the Internet, a historical head-start in food production, innovation, and institution-building still correlates with more potential for growth and development. He uses the examples of sub-Saharan African countries' extremely short experiences with state-building, writing, and technological adoptions as an explanatory factor for African countries' continued lagging behind in terms of performance in economic development and overall governance.
However, while touching extensively on the historical trends' effects on the present, Diamond deliberately neglects to speculate on how they would affect the future development of the human race. While it is assumed that countries with more historical experience in food production, for instance, are likely to achieve more economic growth and success well into the future, the thesis, as Diamond concedes, does not directly apply when the scope is more microscopic or macroscopic. If individual villages/cities/regions have similar peoples and climates, there must be something else explaining their differences in wealth.
But more interestingly, what if Earth, as an entity, can be seen as one "region" within the entire galaxy? In the intergalactic scheme of things, planet Earth can very much be considered more or less innovative/advanced based on its comparative environmental advantages for food production and complex society-building. On one side of the spectrum, such comparisons can be quite obvious. The other planets of the solar system that Earth is in, there is no other that hosts discernible signs of civilization, and it is not difficult to pin that to the absolute lack of suitable climates for vegetation to grow.
Yet, the other side of the spectrum is more open to speculation. The likes of NASA and other space agencies have spent billions probing the farthest ends of the galaxy observable with the limited technologies of mankind, all in the effort to answer the question "are we alone?" Even in recent days, ten more supposedly Earth-like planets have been discovered, raising (again) the possibility of other highly intelligent civilizations outside of planet Earth. The fact that people are so excited about the prospect of "extraterrestrial life" explains the successes of sci-fi classics like Star Wars and Star Trek.
Diamond's thesis correlating environmental factors with development poses an unconventional method by which that question of "are we alone?" can be answered. Currently, to understand "outer" Earth-like planets, space agencies have been pursuing expensive automated vehicles to probe those distant lands, or even more passively, to send signals toward those designated locations in hope that intelligent life would return the favor. Diamond's thesis, however, would make it less important to gather information directly of the outer planets' inhabitants, whether it be through visual confirmation or returned signals.
Instead, if the correlation between environmental factors and development is truly universal, just how long an Earth-like planet acquired Earth-like features that allow for sustenance of lifeforms would be a good proxy to gauge the possibility of whether there is any human-like highly intelligence beings. If the Earth-like planet has been Earth-like for a much longer time period than Earth itself, and its habitable size is comparably bigger than Earth itself, then it is possibly to speculate that the lifeforms on that particular planet would be just as, if not more, intelligent than those on Earth.
These complex agricultural societies, when placed in a geography that allow for quick diffusion of ideas and competition for regional supremacy, are best placed to intentionally and unintentionally adopt and further improve lethal weapons (such as guns, germs, and steel) that would quickly wreak havoc upon other societies that do not have the right environments and conditions for adopting innovations. For Diamond, the environmental and geographic factors are the main drivers for why farming societies displaced hunter-gathering ones, and Eurasian ones displaced non-Eurasian ones, across all time periods.
In an attempt to apply this historical trend to the contemporary world, Diamond points out that despite today's global connectivity based on international trade and the Internet, a historical head-start in food production, innovation, and institution-building still correlates with more potential for growth and development. He uses the examples of sub-Saharan African countries' extremely short experiences with state-building, writing, and technological adoptions as an explanatory factor for African countries' continued lagging behind in terms of performance in economic development and overall governance.
However, while touching extensively on the historical trends' effects on the present, Diamond deliberately neglects to speculate on how they would affect the future development of the human race. While it is assumed that countries with more historical experience in food production, for instance, are likely to achieve more economic growth and success well into the future, the thesis, as Diamond concedes, does not directly apply when the scope is more microscopic or macroscopic. If individual villages/cities/regions have similar peoples and climates, there must be something else explaining their differences in wealth.
But more interestingly, what if Earth, as an entity, can be seen as one "region" within the entire galaxy? In the intergalactic scheme of things, planet Earth can very much be considered more or less innovative/advanced based on its comparative environmental advantages for food production and complex society-building. On one side of the spectrum, such comparisons can be quite obvious. The other planets of the solar system that Earth is in, there is no other that hosts discernible signs of civilization, and it is not difficult to pin that to the absolute lack of suitable climates for vegetation to grow.
Yet, the other side of the spectrum is more open to speculation. The likes of NASA and other space agencies have spent billions probing the farthest ends of the galaxy observable with the limited technologies of mankind, all in the effort to answer the question "are we alone?" Even in recent days, ten more supposedly Earth-like planets have been discovered, raising (again) the possibility of other highly intelligent civilizations outside of planet Earth. The fact that people are so excited about the prospect of "extraterrestrial life" explains the successes of sci-fi classics like Star Wars and Star Trek.
Diamond's thesis correlating environmental factors with development poses an unconventional method by which that question of "are we alone?" can be answered. Currently, to understand "outer" Earth-like planets, space agencies have been pursuing expensive automated vehicles to probe those distant lands, or even more passively, to send signals toward those designated locations in hope that intelligent life would return the favor. Diamond's thesis, however, would make it less important to gather information directly of the outer planets' inhabitants, whether it be through visual confirmation or returned signals.
Instead, if the correlation between environmental factors and development is truly universal, just how long an Earth-like planet acquired Earth-like features that allow for sustenance of lifeforms would be a good proxy to gauge the possibility of whether there is any human-like highly intelligence beings. If the Earth-like planet has been Earth-like for a much longer time period than Earth itself, and its habitable size is comparably bigger than Earth itself, then it is possibly to speculate that the lifeforms on that particular planet would be just as, if not more, intelligent than those on Earth.
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