As the War in Iran Proves America's Weakness, the World Questions the Value of Western Unity

In another war, by the third week, people will accept the routine of a new reality and will have moved on to something newer and more exciting. We cannot say the same about the so-called Third Persian Gulf War that is unfolding across a swath of the Middle East. The photos of residential compounds and civil infrastructure pummeled by bombs and missiles are getting as numbing to see as the growing statistics of casualties. But this war refuses to simply exist out of our minds: its consequences are too real and too close to be summarized as "someone else's problem."

The global anxiety goes beyond, but is reinforced by the frantic headlines. As a casual stock investor, I have seen prices tank by nearly 10% since the first shots were fired, with no prospect of losses recouped until a real prospect of a negotiated end becomes visible. Hundreds of millions around the world are even less fortunate. As oil reserves deplete and few tankers can get through the Strait of Hormuz to replenish, food and transport prices will continue rising, eating into the meagre earnings of the most impoverished and spreading hunger where it should have been a thing of the past.

But perhaps even more consequential in the long term is the more unpredictable world, as the old order of political stability guaranteed by American hegemony gives way to open defiance. The back-and-forth between President Trump and the wavering "allies" of America illustrates the almost real-time change well. In response to Trump's request that other nations send warships to help unblock Hormuz, none affirmed, with many openly stating that the war is not theirs to fight. Even those with the most to lose from American military disengagement (e.g., Japan and South Korea) have all but said "no."

Instead, we are seeing the continued growth of a collective backlash against Israel, even among the most ardent supporters of Trump and Western unity. Many, from the right-wing populists of the original Make America Great cohort, to the diplomats working hard to bring Iran and America back to the negotiating table, bluntly stated that this war is unnecessary, with the US spending its precious treasures and international goodwill on advancing Israeli national interests instead of American ones. With Israel accused of genocide, that is not a good look for the US government.

Yet, as discord within the so-called "Western camp," with the US-Israel axis on one side and everyone else on the other, continues to fester, the bigger danger lies in the lack of any viable replacement. NATO claims that even without American participation, it has enough military assets to defend its members and stave off aggressors like Russia. But would an America-less NATO be willing to put its soldiers on the line to police rogue states beyond the confines of Europe? The implicit negative to that question jitters nerves among American allies in the Middle East and Asia.

It might be ironic to see that the overexpansion of America could finally create conditions for what many people on the political right across the West desire: a more isolationist self-focus, revitalizing native cultures and peoples by extricating from non-Western matters and instead investing at home the assets currently earmarked for global intervention. Where does that leave the non-Western allies, though? Do they accommodate the decidedly self-interested, value-free international outlook of the Chinese, Indians, and Arabs? They may not have a choice but to when they have no Western support.

Or they could make a last-ditch attempt to keep America onside, seeing that no country can challenge its primacy even if it sinks deeper into an Iranian-made quagmire. Threatened by unfriendly, militarily capable neighbors, they can cling to the fading idea of Western unity, promising to invest heavily in America, increase their military spending by purchasing American weapons to show growing capabilities in self-defense, and deepen military ties with other Western countries. Will it be enough to keep America engaged and the West united? Only time can tell.

One thing is certain, however. The belief that Western unity is a bedrock of international stability and a foundation for greater prosperity has been shattered. Gulf states did not host American bases, buy American weapons, and use the US dollar for selling their oil so they can be bombed when the US goes to war. The US military machine has proved incapable of turning overwhelming force into a quick resolution without global economic calamity. When American military strength underpinning alliances proves not all-conquering, the very worth of being involved in the alliance is questioned.