New Prime Minister Ishiba Has a Limited Time to Make His Mark on Japan

By the standards of often blank-faced Japanese politicians, the incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba is certainly charismatic. Years of going on TV shows and giving media interviews, not to mention running around rural Japan to shake hands with voters have given him a folksy, joke-filled talking style more reminiscent of George W. Bush than a Japanese bureaucrat in a suit. It is no wonder that he has earned the likes of the grassroots, while attracting skepticism among his fellow politicians, even within the same party. Being different does not help in the subdued one-party democracy that is Japan.

Whether Ishiba's folksy charm can be turned into serious political capital remains to be seen. Even before he stepped into Day 1 of his job, there were plenty of widely cited red flags. A history of quitting the ruling party for the opposition may signal that his colleagues will be less than cooperative as he sets out his own agenda. A background in rural Tottori and the resulting interest in rural revitalization may detract from the bigger task of stimulating the overall Japanese economy, rather than unproductive handouts to regions that will disappear due to depopulation anyway.

And most significantly, his ideas for Japan's place in the world may not fully align with reality. A belief in collective security of a distinctive anti-Chinese nature that some dub "Asian NATO" is a non-starter among Southeast Asians who are loathe to lose out on the economic benefits of continued engagements with China. His belief that Japan can continue to invest large sums in infrastructure both at home and abroad, particularly in his beloved world of long-distance railways is no different from his military ideas: Japan simply cannot afford it, economically and diplomatically.

Indeed, if his foreign policy agenda falls apart, Japan's place in the world may become even more diminished than it already has in the past few years. A focus on the rural invitation may work if the result is something akin to the Silicon Island initiative Kyushu is building on the back of foreign investments in semiconductor manufacturing. But if revitalization means boosting incomes for farmers in rural Tottori, Ishiba may quickly find himself not only in a fiscal bind through greater debt but also much less wiggle room in foreign policy.

After all, if rural Japan is to significantly boost income outside government handouts, finding a foreign outlet for its produce will have to play a much bigger role. Japanese agricultural goods are so expensive that a domestic market of consumers, shrinking both in number and real income, will keep it afloat. These goods will need to be exported to foreign markets as luxury goods. This is particularly going to be the case with perishable vegetables and fruits that Japan prizes itself for quality. An age of greater reliance on East and Southeast Asian neighbors may arrive.

With Japan not always in the best of relations with these neighbors, relying on them for buying agricultural produce introduces new constraints for foreign policy. As Japanese seafood producers in the northeast know well, the Chinese authorities can particularly be fickle, banning exports and harming livelihoods on a whim when supposedly "hostile" actions, akin to letting nuclear wastewater into the ocean, are taken. If Ishiba is to push exports as a pillar of rural revitalization, he will find himself having to placate neighbors more than the US and pro-US elements in Japan and elsewhere, would like.

But such constraints also offer the new administration a window of opportunity to carry out a more balanced, independent track in foreign policy than it has in the past. With economic decoupling with China a consensus among all in Washington DC, Japan could deviate, choosing to maintain somewhat close, if more discreet, economic ties with China and Chinese firms scattered around the world. That stance would go hand-in-hand with Ishiba's stated desire to continue productive dialogue to reduce tensions in the region.

So which Ishiba will Japan and the world get? Only time will tell. But seeing the revolving door of Japanese prime ministers in the years before and after Shinzo Abe, it is safe to say that Ishiba will have to hit the ground running as soon as possible. An initial honeymoon phase with the public, thanks to his decades of work and a predicted victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections, will quickly peter out if he achieves neither his aim of strengthening Asian alliances or making rural Japan more economically dynamic. Time is ticking and now Ishiba will have to do much more than just turn on his folksy charms.