Stability and Security: What the Death of Shinzo Abe Mean for Japan in the Short-term?

It has been a few days since the assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe during a parliamentary election campaign speech in Nara prefecture, and the news cycle has somehow moved on. The headline news of the day centered on renewed worries about the "7th wave of COVID" with the spread of the new Omicron BA.5 variant on the domestic side and the continuing political turmoil of Sri Lanka on the international side. While press conferences by law enforcement and the church Abe was allegedly involved in still made the news, they have become afterthoughts as people move on with their lives.

It is a shame that the assassination has become so quickly forgotten by the general public. And it is not just because Abe, like many news outlets remarked at the time of his death, was a larger-than-life figure in Japanese politics until that very moment he was shot. It is also because of the fact that an unemployed man in his 40s, making guns at home using materials he bought in regular stores, and walked right up to Abe for the shot, has been able to plan the assassination for several months, without any alarm raised among those in the country's domestic security and intelligence-gathering apparatus.

Of course, plenty of commentators and members of the general public have justified the lack of vigilance, arguing that Japan's low level of gun-related crime meant that those at the scene would have been in complete surprise when gunshots were fired. Indeed, some of the media coverage on the public reaction to Abe's assassination reflected increased anxiety about the country "not being safe anymore" after someone can shot a high-profile politician, who should have the best security detail and bodyguards in the country, at such close range with so little resistance from law enforcement.

While the sentiment is surely exaggerated, as Abe's assassin acted entirely alone and does not hold mainstream views, the renewed anxieties for public safety should revigorate reforms within the country's law enforcement. People have already seemed to forget that it has only been two years since disgraced Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn fled Japan in a box, highlighting just how lax the country's border security is. The thorough lack of police on the streets or metal detectors when entering crowded places may give an impression of public safety, but only encourage criminals to act with impunity.

As police officers line up to apologize for the failure to protect Abe in public, more public scrutiny is needed to show just how they are planning to turn the visual forms of security, so well illustrated by the many anti-terrorist posters in public, into actual actions that display vigilance toward sources of suspicious activities and potential troubles. As the parliamentary elections continue, it is up to candidates to speak about the need for more investments in intelligence-gathering and control on sales of potentially hazardous materials useful for weapon-making.

But as Abe passes away, it is difficult to say whether politicians in the country can focus on public security at this time. Abe's dominant position within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) means that his passing leaves a giant power vacuum within the party itself. Lawmakers that adhere to Abe's positions suddenly find themselves needing to swear allegiance to new factions, some of which will surely emerge as ambitious politicians within the party, previously hampered by Abe's presence, rise to new positions of prominence and influence.

The result is likely to be a source of political instability for Japan, just as the streets are filled with anxiety about a supposed dteriroation in public security. While the most recent election saw further weakening of the country's already feeble opposition parties in the face of another convincing LDP victory, the entrenched de facto one-party state may revert to the pre-Abe era, when LDP prime ministers quickly disappeared as they appeared, unable to turn around the country's stagnant economy and fulfill public wishes for renewed growth.

Thankfully, in the aftermath of the Abe assassination, the renewed concern for public security will make the job of current administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida slightly easier. As the issue of public security weighs higher in the minds of voters, he can shift policy talks about security, a strong suit of the conservative LDP, and focus less on the likes of COVID and economy, which are fundamentally international in nature and within the control of Japanese government bigwigs. If there is any sort of silver lining to the unfortunate, untimely death of Abe, this policy shift may be the most lasting.