The Power of Network Effects Prevents Sustained Shift of Population From Big Cities

Chiba city is a decidedly underrated city in an underrated prefecture. Tokyoites find little reason to make the trip to the prefecture beyond the use of Narita airport, even though Chiba prefecture is right next door and the trip to the center of Chiba city can be done in less than an hour. That lack of firsthand experience with Chiba causes Tokyoites to have acquired a distinct misconception of the city with nearly a million residents just to their east. Tokyoites perceive Chiba city as lacking in basic amenities that make life comfortable, and that Chiba residents need to head to Tokyo for any sort of proper entertainment.

But once a Tokyoite spends a little more time in Chiba, they realize just how much the city has going for it. Despite having all the major chain stores and restaurants that Tokyo would have because it has only a fraction of Tokyo's population, none of the usual crowds would be found in those establishments. Lack of strong demand for housing and fairly well-developed urban transport systems mean that residents can reach beaches, mountains, and large parks quickly by hopping on buses and trains. These elements together make up for a relaxing atmosphere not found in central Tokyo.

Indeed, for transplants from Tokyo, the quality of life should go up even as salaries stay the same. The close distance to Tokyo means that many residents of Chiba city and even points further to the east can commute to the capital and take advantage of the high compensation there, even as they maintain permanent residence in Chiba. Lower costs of groceries and housing in Chiba, not to mention a more relaxed atmosphere, make for a much more laid-back environment for raising children and generally to enjoy the weekend.

Thought this way, Chiba seems like the perfect place to take advantage of the ongoing shift to remote work that many Japanese localities and companies are attempting to take advantage of during the COVID pandemic. Yet, whether through the population data released by the municipal government or the anecdotes of those who moved, there is simply no concrete empirical evidence of there being a sustained influx of new residents from Tokyo and other parts of Japan into Chiba city or the prefecture as a whole. It is as if the advantages of more provincial living have not been sufficiently propagated.

Chiba is not alone in not being able to attract many new residents. Plenty of media coverage and personal blog posts speak of the beaches, low living costs, better weather, and low-stress levels of places both near and far, from the bedroom community of Kanagawa and Saitama prefectures just across the border from Tokyo to get-away-from-it-all resort towns of Hokkaido and Okinawa. Yet, at the end of the day, while online and media coverage speaks of the dream to move away from Tokyo, for the vast majority, they seem to just remain a dream, while they stay put in the big metropolis.

Taking a closer look, it does seem like the benefit of staying in Tokyo outweighs leaving it for many, more sociable people. Never mind that workplaces are allowing more people to work remotely. Life outside work cannot be made remote easily. People still want to go to the trendiest cafes, restaurants, museums, galleries, and social events. The bigger market in the big city means that the latest cultural developments are bound to happen there instead of small towns farther away. For those who want to remain in tune with the latest in physical entertainment, they need to remain in Tokyo.

And the same goes for intellectual activities. The best universities, high schools, and even kindergartens will stay in Tokyo, with no plans to move away. Parents want their kids to go to the best schools, surrounded by the most intellectually capable peers, both in and outside the classroom. The educational resources and even casual intellectual exchanges that a Tokyo resident will be able to happen just by going about their daily lives are many times what are available to residents of provincial towns, even one as big as Chiba. 

Indeed, a bigger population does mean bigger opportunities. More people mean more ways to get together to think about new business ideas, more chances for romantic endeavors, and more convenience of meeting friends in person. These network effects, whether in a big city or on an equivalent platform online, compel each individual to stay rather than go, even if they know the benefits of leaving. For people who are not averse to meeting new people and being stimulated by new conversations, small towns with familiar faces are certainly suffocating.