As the continuing Russo-Ukrainian War upends the lives of Ukrainian people, with the world following their plight on both traditional and social media, a much less noticed upending of ordinary lives is also happening in Russia. Western companies, from McDonald's and Microsoft to Accenture and Ikea, are rapidly shutting down their operations, depriving the country's residents of the products and services that they have grown used to since the same firms entered and expanded in the Russian market in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse.
While it is unfortunate that Russian citizens are unable to buy what they have taken for granted in the past, the bigger issue at hand is that the same ordinary Russians, many of them firmly against the ongoing war in Ukraine, are personally suffering the loss of their livelihoods. As Western firms quit Russia, thousands of their employees are being laid off, no doubt creating a ripple effect through the entire economy in which their clients, suppliers, and other business partners may also need to cut back on employee numbers. A massive wave of unemployment threatens to sink the lives of individual Russians.
The misery of unemployment is combined with the inability even for those with jobs to make ends meet. As Russia is cut off by SWIFT, Visa, and MasterCard, Russian financial services providers are seeking their operations grind to a halt, and public confidence in, and therefore the value of, the Russian rouble is collapsing. Even for those who are fortunate to still have jobs, they can no longer afford to purchase daily necessities as the real value of their salaries shrivel. For those unlucky enough to need to receive money internationally, the cash will certainly not be forthcoming anytime soon.
The powerful economic sanctions Western allies lined up against Russia may be designed to hurt the oligarchic elites of the country that control the country's economy, but it is the normal people of Russia that may be bearing the brunt of the negative consequences. Whereas the Russian economic and political elite may long maintain assets outside Russia that can circumvent sanctions directly targeting the country itself, ordinary Russian workers with no foreign ties have no choice to swallow the fact that they now have much less spending power and choices of what they can buy.
It remains to be seen whether hitting ordinary Russians in their pockets will lead to sustained opposition to the war in Ukraine strong enough to influence decision-making in Kremlin. While news of Russian police arresting anti-war protestors, Russians outside the country denouncing the war, and prominent dissident Alexei Navalny inciting protests against the war have all made news in international outlets, there is no indication that Russians are putting down their jobs en masse to combat the ruling government, as civilians in Myanmar have resorted to after the military coup.
If anything, there is the possibility that Western sanctions against Russia may lead to regular citizens there being even more dependent on the ruling regime and less able to publicly vocalize opposition to the war in Ukraine. As the Russian government finds ways to circumvent sanctions, including the implementation of a more domestic financial infrastructure and insular economy, for individual Russians, being part of the new system, and in turn, maintaining at least some sort of ability to survive day-to-day, will depend even more on their professed allegiance to the Russian state.
And if the Russian general public indeed increases its dependence on the Russian state to provide them with the means of financial transaction and basic employment, Putin's desire to create the so-called "Fortress Russia," a nearly autarkic economic structure that cannot be damaged by foreign economic restrictions, will be one step closer to fruition. Running an economy, ultimately, depends on there being millions of workers willing to participate in operating its day-to-day activities, and being confident that the system will last and provide for them in the coming decades.
As Western analysts talk of the fallout of the Russo-Ukrainian War lasting beyond the war itself, the severing economic ties between Russia and other parts of the world will also become a lasting reality for those remaining within the country's borders. While it is true that Russia has no current alternatives to all the Western firms that suddenly left it, after the initial shock, the state may be in a good position to urgently build up those alternatives as a matter of survival. And the vast majority of Russian people, with no other choice under Western sanctions, will play active roles in helping to build those alternatives.
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