The Newfound "Fluidity" of East Asian Relations

For those paying attention to the intricacies of East Asian politics, some recent events could contain some serious game-changers.  For one, the Abe government in Tokyo has announced one of the most radical military reforms since end of World War II, effectively giving the Japanese Self-Defense Forces the ability to initiate war and place combat personnel outside home soil through "collective self-defense."  In other words, if Japanese allies (such as the US or South Korea) are attacked, the Japanese government now has the legal basis to deploy troops to directly assist in combat, anywhere on the globe.

Many on the right in Japan, along with many pro-Japanese foreign interests have been secretly clamoring for this for years.  On one hand is the rapid decline in the positive image of China among the Japanese, who are becoming more and more inclined to view their neighbor to the west with unbridled hostility and suspicion.  On the other hand is the persistent absence of the United States as a contractual ally with legal responsibility to deter perceived threats.  Despite the Obama Administration's high-spirited calls for "an Asian pivot," the US military has shown little concrete actions to back up Obama's words.

Yet what is even more interesting is the slight but perhaps even more fascinating changes in how the relations among the East Asian neighbors have taken a turn toward the "unusual."  As this post is being written, Japanese and North Korean officials are reopening talks in Beijing on the decades-old abductee issue.  A North Korean promise to resolve the issue is now meeting a promise from the Japanese government for lifting of some sanctions, potentially leading to official recognition of the North Korean government for the very first time since North Korea's political foundation.

Similarly, the Chinese leadership has been unusually cozy with South Korea in the past years, with Presidency Xi Jinping meeting his counterpart Park Geun-hye for the fourth time since assuming office.  In contract, he has yet meet with any high level North Korean official or made visits to Pyongyang, while openly threatening to cut off oil and gas deliveries over "disappointments" of nuke testing and missile launches.  It is all the more interesting to see each country actively going across the traditional lines of partnership in a time when a general rise in nationalism is apparent throughout the region.

At the risk of overstating their impacts, the above mentioned series of events is nothing short of revolutionary.  Finally, to interpret one way, the old battling lines between pro-American liberal democracies and authoritarian states are discarded in favor of national interests that are completely independent of alliances and ideologies.  And to an extent, the growth in comprehensive national power within these Asian states, especially compared to the United States, has made the idea of considering American interests when formulating foreign policies more and more irrelevant for all regional powers.

Traditional scholars of international relations would predict conflict.  The disappearance of a stabilizing hegemonic power like the US will pit countries with similar military capabilities against one another.  The inability of intimate trade relationships to deter open conflict is evidenced from World War I's example.  There are simply too many issues, from direct territorial disputes (such as Dokdo and Diaoyu) to disagreements over other flash points (such as North Korea's nukes, Taiwan's political status, and who are included in regional trade agreements), that can put East Asians into collision course with one another.

Yet, there are greater hopes for optimism, especially given the recently demonstrated fluidity of the politicians' minds.  The willingness of the politicians to openly and publicly overlook traditional antagonisms and enter into open discussions to improve ties show that many thorny issues in this region can at least be bypassed, if not resolved in the short-term.  It is a clear illustration of how leaders in each country are not constrained by their respective domestic interests.  Their audience at home are becoming increasingly tolerant of how they conduct details of foreign policies as long as national interests are advanced.

Of course, the keyword, at the end of the day, is still advancing national interest.  Japan will get an answer for the abductees and provide more direct military means to counter the perceived Chinese threat.  The Koreas will respectively forge new friendships to generate more diplomatic space.  Suspicions will remain and may even become more entrenched.  But that in itself does not mean that the multiple ongoing balancing acts cannot produce win-win situations.  Finding commonalities in differences is one of Asians' strengths and it would not be surprising to see how current moves by these neighboring countries gradually produce a new status quo without need for serious confrontations.  

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